The hottest is to avoid the risk of deceleration a

Avoiding the risk of "deceleration" and readjusting the layout

Guide: we can find that by comparing the performance growth rate () of relevant industries with the excess return of the industry, we can well explain the impact of the change of performance growth rate on the excess return of the industry index, and have become the main carrier for institutional investors to conduct periodic value games. Under the expectation of raising interest rates, long-term capital is expected to

we have achieved growth through the performance of relevant industries（ α) Compared with the excess return of the industry, it can be found that, α It well explains the impact of changes in performance growth on the excess return of the industry index, and has become the main carrier for institutional investors to conduct periodic "value game"

under the expectation of interest rate rise, the rise of the expected return on long-term capital leads to the decline of A-share valuation level; For now? With the trend of macroeconomic operation in the third quarter and the adjustment context of monetary policy becoming clearer, a shares will rebound after continuous decline

we suggest that fund investors use the market rebound to adjust their layout in the second half of the year, reduce their holdings in upstream industries where performance growth is facing an inflection point, and continue to retain industry-leading companies whose core assets have reached the absolute value line and whose performance growth will continue; It is suggested that non fund investors should take advantage of the rebound of the market to reduce their holdings in the upstream α Reduce positions in industries that have fallen significantly. Market game assets will still be concentrated in the second half of the year and next year α For industries that will experience phased growth, the valuation level of the SME sector is generally high and limited α The growth rate will be difficult to become the main game platform for institutional investors

the latest monthly macroeconomic data of China shows that the central government's macro-control policies in the first half of the year, especially the way of administrative intervention in the economy, have shown remarkable results. However, we have no intention to comprehensively comment and analyze the future trend of China's economy here, but based on the understanding of this macro-control and its impact on relevant industries? Especially the impact on the valuation level of the securities market and the performance of listed companies? This leads to a study and judgment on the operation of the securities market

market operation space and characteristics in the second half of the year

region: Top comprehensive guidance

first, with the rise of the market return on capital, the current market valuation level is facing downward pressure

second, we raised the performance growth rate of Listed Companies in 2004 to 20%. It is worth noting that the impact of macro-control on micro entities has a lag of months, and the "tightening" policy may not be fully reflected in the financial statements of Listed Companies in 2004

third, in terms of the structure of share prices, the market performance of loss making stocks and low profit stocks in the first half of the year lagged behind the index by about five percentage points, which is more consistent with the neutral estimate in our annual forecast of the structure of Jinan gold testing press. In the forecast of the second half of the year, we will continue this estimation method

our simulation results show that the absolute value line of the A-share market has increased compared with last year. Taking the Shanghai Composite Index as a reference: the low point has risen from around 1200 to 1250. The performance growth of listed companies is indeed conducive to improving the investment value of the market. With the rise of the expected return rate of the market, the downward shift of the focus of market valuation is the main reason why the index peak of this calculation result is significantly lower than that predicted last year

at the same time, this means that if there is no substantial positive support such as compensation for the reduction of state-owned shares or the appreciation of the RMB, the 1783 high set by the Shanghai Composite Index in the first half of the year will become the high point of the whole year, and the core fluctuation area of the Shanghai Composite Index will move to point in the second half of the year. Below 1350 is still the low-risk area of the market, and the time and space for the stock index to stay below this point will be very limited

fluctuation characteristics: oversold rebound

although we predict that the fluctuation center of the stock index will move down in the second half of the year, it does not mean that a shares will continue to decline, and a shares will rebound after experiencing a continuous decline

at the enterprise level, the performance level of core asset companies will continue to grow in 2004. Due to the lag of the financial statements, the inflection point of the performance growth of listed companies may not be reflected in the statements until next year. In the second half of the year, the future of core assets α The game with G (performance growth, the same below) will continue to exist; Although we do not think that there will be substantial progress on the issues of "state-owned shares" and "RMB exchange rate adjustment" in the second half of the year, under the environment of market downturn, especially for the possible tentative actions of the management of "state-owned shares", it will provide the market with game opportunities and promote the phased activity of the A-share market

the above factors will help the market form a strong rebound, and the height of the rebound will depend on the phased results of macro-control; The speed of capital market expansion and the market's expectations for some hazy benefits

from our prediction results, the rebound peak should be above 1500 points, and it is possible to break through 1600 points. If institutional investors can successfully grasp the rebound in the second half of the year and successfully reallocate assets in the process of rebound, they are likely to become the final winner in 2004

prospect of institutional investment strategy

fund investors: re layout

our advice to fund investors is to use the rebound of the market to sell the over allocated part of the core asset industry and the core asset industries or companies that mainstream research institutions predict g will have negative growth in the future years, and keep the valuation level below the absolute value line of the fund, and the core asset industries or companies that predict g to be positive in the future years, such as steel Some leading companies in automobile, construction machinery, cement and other industries; Or the average growth rate of G in the next year is predicted to be core assets that can resist the downward risk of valuation, such as leading companies in power, coal, ports, machinery, banking, shipping and other industries. We believe that the absolute return and relative valuation level of these companies can help the fund stabilize its market value and meet the long-term return on capital requirements of fund holders

in terms of the allocation of game assets, we suggest paying attention to the second half of the year α Industries that are expected to accelerate in stages, such as key companies in communication equipment, ports, components, integrated circuits, textiles and clothing, communication operations, white goods, logistics and chemical raw materials, and next year α Key companies in industries with slightly falling stock prices and overreaction, such as coal, petrochemical, banking, power and shipping, took advantage of the market rebound to carry out phased arbitrage operations

of course, except for some industries that were originally core assets, most of these industries are sub industries with small market capitalization, and there are also problems in the company representation of some industries. Therefore, except for the long-term configuration value of key companies in individual industries, the rest should adopt the idea of band operation and use α The impact of the change trend on market expectations to obtain arbitrage income

non fund investors: rebound and reduce positions

due to the high capital cost of non fund investors, the most rational choice for non fund investors is to avoid the upstream "deceleration" industry in core assets, especially the prediction of the next year α Industries that have fallen sharply should make full use of the rebound opportunity of the market to reduce their positions

in terms of asset allocation, as the focus of the A-share market will move down in the second half of the year, the market volatility space will be further narrowed, and the difficulty of phased arbitrage operations will begin to increase. We suggest that non fund investors can focus on the primary market. Under the background of restricted indirect financing and increasing A-share financing pressure, the accelerated pace of market expansion also provides investors with arbitrage opportunities in the primary market

investors can actively participate in low-risk arbitrage such as additional issuance and convertible bonds. Especially in the bottom area of the market, the refinancing of listed companies often provides investors with opportunities to exchange lower risks for higher returns, which can be focused on. The Shenzhen small and medium-sized enterprise sector, which received widespread attention in the early stage, has generally high valuation levels and limited α The growth rate will be difficult to become the main game platform for institutional investors

in terms of industry allocation in the secondary market, compared with funds, non fund investors are obviously at a disadvantage in terms of research and grasp of fundamentals. Therefore, we suggest that we should make full use of the liquidity advantage of capital scale and make more flexible phased allocation in the industries mentioned above in combination with the judgment of the fluctuation region of the A-share market, The goal of the configuration is to turn to the composition of the direct side fatigue testing machine and the basic management in ordinary use. After being bought back, we can take the average income not lower than the market rebound increase, lock the income in time, and wait patiently for the next arbitrage opportunity